Genetic Algorithms Applications to Power System Security Schemes

This thesis details the approaches which aim to automatically optimize power system security schemes. In this research, power system security scheme includes two main plans. The first plan, which is called the defence plan scheme, is about preventing cascading blackouts while the second plan, which is called the restoration plan, is about rebuilding the power system in case of failure of the first plan. Practically, the defence plan includes under-frequency load shedding and under-frequency islanding schemes. These two schemes are always considered the last stage of the defensive actions against any severe incident. It is recognized that it is not easy for any power system’s operational planner to obtain the minimum amount of load shedding or the best power system islanding formation. In the case of defence plan failure, which is always possible, a full or partial system collapse may occur. In this situation, the power system operator is urgently required to promptly restore the system. This is not an easy task, since the operator must not violate many power system security constraints. In this research, genetic algorithms and expert systems are employed, as optimization methods, to identify the best amount of load shedding and island formation for the defence plan and the shortest path to rebuild the power system for the restoration plan. In the process of designing the power system security scheme, the majority of the electromechanical power system security constraints are considered. It is well known that power system optimization problems often have a huge solution space. In this regard, many successful techniques have been used to reduce the size of the solution spaces associated with the optimization of the power system security schemes in this work. The Libyan power system is used as an industrial case study to validate the practicality of the research approaches. The results clearly show that the new methods that have been researched in this PhD work have shown great success. Using the Libyan power system, the optimized defence plan has been compared to the current defence plan. The results of this comparison have shown that the optimized defence plan outperforms the current one. Regarding the optimized restoration plan, the results present the fact that the Libyan power system can be restored in reasonable time.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator: development and validation of a tool for identifying African surgical patients at risk of severe postoperative complications

Background: The African Surgical Outcomes Study (ASOS) showed that surgical patients in Africa have a mortality twice the global average. Existing risk assessment tools are not valid for use in this population because the pattern of risk for poor outcomes differs from high-income countries. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a simple, preoperative risk stratification tool to identify African surgical patients at risk for in-hospital postoperative mortality and severe complications. Methods: ASOS was a 7-day prospective cohort study of adult patients undergoing surgery in Africa. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator was constructed with a multivariable logistic regression model for the outcome of in-hospital mortality and severe postoperative complications. The following preoperative risk factors were entered into the model; age, sex, smoking status, ASA physical status, preoperative chronic comorbid conditions, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. Results: The model was derived from 8799 patients from 168 African hospitals. The composite outcome of severe postoperative complications and death occurred in 423/8799 (4.8%) patients. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator includes the following risk factors: age, ASA physical status, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. The model showed good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.805 and good calibration with c-statistic corrected for optimism of 0.784. Conclusions: This simple preoperative risk calculator could be used to identify high-risk surgical patients in African hospitals and facilitate increased postoperative surveillance. © 2018 British Journal of Anaesthesia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Medical Research Council of South Africa gran

Maternal and neonatal outcomes after caesarean delivery in the African Surgical Outcomes Study: a 7-day prospective observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Maternal and neonatal mortality is high in Africa, but few large, prospective studies have been done to investigate the risk factors associated with these poor maternal and neonatal outcomes. METHODS: A 7-day, international, prospective, observational cohort study was done in patients having caesarean delivery in 183 hospitals across 22 countries in Africa. The inclusion criteria were all consecutive patients (aged ≥18 years) admitted to participating centres having elective and non-elective caesarean delivery during the 7-day study cohort period. To ensure a representative sample, each hospital had to provide data for 90% of the eligible patients during the recruitment week. The primary outcome was in-hospital maternal mortality and complications, which were assessed by local investigators. The study was registered on the South African National Health Research Database, number KZ_2015RP7_22, and on ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT03044899. FINDINGS: Between February, 2016, and May, 2016, 3792 patients were recruited from hospitals across Africa. 3685 were included in the postoperative complications analysis (107 missing data) and 3684 were included in the maternal mortality analysis (108 missing data). These hospitals had a combined number of specialist surgeons, obstetricians, and anaesthetists totalling 0·7 per 100 000 population (IQR 0·2-2·0). Maternal mortality was 20 (0·5%) of 3684 patients (95% CI 0·3-0·8). Complications occurred in 633 (17·4%) of 3636 mothers (16·2-18·6), which were predominantly severe intraoperative and postoperative bleeding (136 [3·8%] of 3612 mothers). Maternal mortality was independently associated with a preoperative presentation of placenta praevia, placental abruption, ruptured uterus, antepartum haemorrhage (odds ratio 4·47 [95% CI 1·46-13·65]), and perioperative severe obstetric haemorrhage (5·87 [1·99-17·34]) or anaesthesia complications (11·47 (1·20-109·20]). Neonatal mortality was 153 (4·4%) of 3506 infants (95% CI 3·7-5·0). INTERPRETATION: Maternal mortality after caesarean delivery in Africa is 50 times higher than that of high-income countries and is driven by peripartum haemorrhage and anaesthesia complications. Neonatal mortality is double the global average. Early identification and appropriate management of mothers at risk of peripartum haemorrhage might improve maternal and neonatal outcomes in Africa. FUNDING: Medical Research Council of South Africa.Medical Research Council of South Africa